By Chang Qin, People’s Daily
Many Chinese consumers have observed a significant decline in the prices of once-premium fruits
like blueberries and Shine Muscat grapes. This trend is primarily driven by market dynamics and
expanded production capabilities.
"Price fluctuations reflect fundamental supply-demand dynamics. Increased availability naturally
leads to price adjustments," said Wang Wenhui, director of the fruit storage and processing
research center at the Research Institute of Pomology, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
Fruits like cherries and blueberries have seen substantial import growth, creating competitive
pricing pressure. Meanwhile, domestic production of blueberries and Shine Muscat grapes has
also expanded rapidly, pushing their prices onto a downward track.
Data show that over the past decade, China's fruit planting area and output have continued to rise.
By 2023, fruit output reached 327 million tons, with per capita availability exceeding 232
kilograms, well above the global average. This increase has been supported not only by steady
supplies of seasonal fruits but also by the rapid rise of off-season produce cultivated in controlled
environments.
The Shine Muscat grape is a vivid example. Introduced in China in 2011 as a premium variety, it
now covers nearly 2 million mu (133,000 hectares) nationwide, with output exceeding 3 million
tons. Its price has fallen dramatically from an initial farm-gate price of 150 yuan ($21.08) per
kilogram and retail price of 300 yuan per kilogram, down to around 10 yuan today.
Wang explained that the rapid expansion of planting, soaring yields, and standardization across the
industrial chain have transformed Shine Muscat grape from a luxury fruit into an everyday option
for consumers.
At the same time, fruit imports are also booming. Over the past decade, China's fruit imports have
grown rapidly, with total imports in 2024 up 77.1 percent compared with those in 2015. Sources
and varieties have diversified, with popular fruits such as cherries and blueberries seeing explosive
growth in import volumes.
New varieties are gaining market access, while favorable policies such as lower tariffs and faster
customs clearance are being introduced. Trade fairs including the Canton Fair, the China
International Import Expo, and the China International Consumer Products Expo are creating
smoother channels for international suppliers. Meanwhile, infrastructure projects such as the New
International Land-Sea Trade Corridor and the China-Laos Railway, along with expanded cold-
chain logistics, storage facilities, and shipping routes, are making fruit trade between China and
the world more efficient and convenient.
In addition to supply-side changes, demand-side adjustments are also influencing the prices of
high-end fruits. Wang noted that the imported fruit market in China is becoming more segmented,
with different grades of products now offered to cater to different consumer groups. This provides
consumers with more diverse options and better value for money.
China's geographic diversity also means that different regions produce distinct high-quality
specialty fruits, which often come at more competitive prices. With the growth of e-commerce and
new retail models, consumers now enjoy a wider range of purchasing options, which makes it
easier to find fruit that suits their preferences.
Looking ahead, as global fruit production continues to expand, trade becomes increasingly
convenient, and China's domestic fruit industry continues to upgrade, Chinese consumers will
have access to a wider variety of fruits at more reasonable prices.
"With abundant supply in the Chinese market and increasingly smooth distribution channels, fruit
prices are expected to remain stable. The 'fruit basket' will keep expanding, giving consumers
more variety and making fresh fruits increasingly accessible," Wang said.